At Conservation International, I am conducting research to support land use planning for conservation, agriculture, and energy.
More land may be needed for food and energy production to meet sustainability and equity goals, but these land uses can interfere with the natural areas that support biodiversity and human well-being. Climate change will shift how species live: as areas get hotter or precipitation patterns change, many plants and animals will no longer be able to survive in their traditional range. Their shifts may result in species no longer thriving within the conservation areas that were originally designed to protect them, placing the effectiveness of conservation investments at risk.
To ensure conservation and natural climate solutions are long-lasting, it is important to consider information about the future, such as future development and climate change. Strategic planning that considers these changes can reduce extinction risk for species and ensure the continuation of valuable ecosystem services, all while making space for the land required to sustainably support the population.
A preprint of this research applied at the global scale can be found here: https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3798412/v1
More information can be found at ci-sparcle.org.
Preliminary results based on global data with Peru as an example. This figure illustrates two scenarios: First, a “Business as Usual” scenario, in which land use planning to meet food and energy demand is only informed by economic factors, and second, a “Nature Inclusive” scenario in which development avoids important areas for carbon and biodiversity while meeting food and energy demand, and 30% of the country is conserved to align with 30x30 goals.
See the below two-pager for more information about this project. Our work is ongoing; please feel free to reach out to cbrock@conservation.org with any questions or comments.